NCAA Football 2006

[The Grim Reefer]

Fun weird season.

One thing I liked was despite Florida winning the NC the SEC was exposed as just another conference this year. Perhaps the toughest conference this year but certainly not dominant.

SEC superiority.....

See you in August guys

[PUGroyale]

Originally posted by Treg

Boise State, You guys had a great undefeated season and cudos to you. I'm sorry tho, an undefeated WAC team will never get in the championship game beating non-conf Big Sky teams. And Shouldnt.

I agree with you on non-conf games across the board... I don't know if it's some sort of legacy thing or what but BSU should quit playing one of their old rivals each year, history or not.

As for the WAC... I appreciate your thoughts on the "big" conferences, since that's your where you live, but actions speak much louder than words. When was the last time a school like BSU, or Rutgers, or Louisville, or WVA weren't considered stepping stones to "bigger better" conferences or programs??? I think the coaches at these schools know a little bit more about the fabric of todays college football scene than you or I... and they're staying put [Patrino woulda except for the pro shot]
Saban tried to lure away BSU's O-coordinator ... thanks, but no thanks he said [can you blame him though? afterall it was Saban and who wants to take a step down from BSU to 'Bama ] Suck on that Tide fans

Point is... before you cast aspersions at the WAC, consider how we did/do against the PAC-10 [bowls or regular season], or OU, or Miami. The gap is closing if not closed. Top to bottom some of the "smaller" conferences stack up pretty well now against the "biggie's". Sure there will still be powerhouses in each conference and maybe BSU couldn't beat Florida, Ohio, LSU, or USC... but maybe they could

[jeffbrig]

Originally posted by Treg
You know what I would like to see as much as a playoff, better non conference schedules!

In the case of UF, I make no apologies for our schedule. It was considered to be the toughest in the country at the start of the season. Some of our opponents may have had an off year, but you can't predict that when schedules are made out years in advance.

In any given year we will ALWAYS face Tennessee and UGA in conference. We rotate in 3 teams from the SEC West, so we usually face an Auburn, LSU, or Bama (or two). Then, if we win the SEC East, we're guaranteed to face a tough opponent in the SEC title game. When we go out of conference, we play FSU every year. We have home-and-homes scheduled with Miami in years with an extra weekend. These two teams may have been down this year, but they're still loaded with talent and will be back.

We still have a strong schedule, even if we pick up a couple of OOC cupcakes. The SEC has fewer bottom feeders that most conferences (Vandy, Miss St.), so we don't get a bunch of easy conference games like some teams. This is a real bolster to our schedule strength. Plus, we have the distinct advantage of playing a true conference championship game. Still, you're unlikely to see UF ever schedule a home-and-home opener against another top 25 school. UF wants 6 home games each year for revenue. The UGA game is always played in Jaxsonville, and the SEC title game is in Atlanta. We get 4 or 5 conference games at home. So, to get to 6, UF always "buys" an extra home game or 2 by giving a lower tier team a fat paycheck to come to us. No solid program would accept that offer, because the money isn't worth it to them. I suspect other teams have similar motivations for scheduling weaker OOC opponents.

This season, UF actually tried schedule some better OOC games than in past years. We ended up with a S. Miss team that went 9-5, and an aspiring UCF team which had a terrible season at 4-8. The terrible W Carolina that had no business playing UF was a late sub after another team backed out just before the season.

[jeffbrig]

Originally posted by The Grim Reefer
One thing I liked was despite Florida winning the NC the SEC was exposed as just another conference this year. Perhaps the toughest conference this year but certainly not dominant.

I don't think we're just another conference. We put 9 teams in bowls, and won 6 of them, including two impressive wins in BCS bowls.

(but, I can't tell you how happy I'd be if Tennessee and Arkansas had shown up )

[Treg]

In the case of UF, I make no apologies for our schedule.

Dude, no need to. Thats not the point I was after.
Maybe I didnt word it right for SEC guys to understand.

I'm not debating the strength of your conference games one bit! Especially after lastnight!

My point is, you guys damn near missed out on that game, be it to USC. U of M or OSU for that matter. Florida had every right to be there and almost didnt go! If your NON-CONF games were against other power house teams outside of your conference everyone would have seen in Sept or Oct where you stacked up. Which ended up pretty damn good.

If more of OUR NON-Conf games were aginst a tuff SEC team, per say, instead of a Youngstown State, Bowling Green or Kent State, we would have seen where we belonged. Which probably wasnt in the NC game...

Get it?



The Gap may is closing I would agree to that but in no way is it closed. A WAC team or Big East team is not going to make it in a NC game by winning out in their conference alone. You (and everone else) IMO need better Non-Conf games. It would be like nation wide regular season "Play-Off".

[The Grim Reefer]

Florida had 7 games at their home field this year, 8 if you count Jacksonville. They traveled to 4 team's home stadiums. Cry me a river

This is interesting for comparing the conferences http://www.colleyrankings.com/curconf.html

[needyreefer]

All I can say, being a huge buckeye fan, is that they got it handed to them. Florida dominated them the whole game. Ginn being out was a factor, but not that big of one. That was not the same OSU team that played Michigan in November, and it was disgusting to watch that game. No excuses though, Florida outplayed them and deserved to win.

BTW Jim Tressel is still one of the best coaches in college football, with or without a win last night (and he has the most class of them all.
It will be interesting to see how Ohio State does next year without Smith. I guess alot of it depends on who all is staying though, like Ginn and Gonzalez.

[jeffbrig]

Great link, Grim.

What's interesting to see there is still a significant gap between the BCS and non-BCS conferences. The BCS conferences won 53-75% of their OOC games, while the non-BCS schooles won 20-44%.

What would be REALLY interesting to see would be a weighted formula that considers a team's rank within its conference vs. the the team they played. For example, a game between two conference leaders is more telling of strength than a #1 from one conference playing a #10 from another conference.

Oh, and Jax is definitely NOT a home game. The fans are split 50/50 at the middle of each end zone. The atmosphere is incredible, it's loud no matter who has the ball. And the 7th home game is an oddity of this year's schedule, not the norm.

[ECEKatko]

OSU will go back to being a power B10 team pounding it up the gut. Maurice Wells wants to transfer, but that leaves Pittman (wants to stay for a shot at the Heisman he's said), Chris Wells, and an amazing incoming freshman from around here. The schedule will be good for a new starting QB, and OSU will be able to run it pretty well to take pressure off whoever it is. Ginn is gone. He can't increase his draft stock any by staying to be a WR for a brand new QB, esp if OSU relies on the run next year. Gonzalez will probably stay - he wants that degree for possibly going to law school. OSU next year is going to end up like Texas this year (but hopefully better): most of the skill positions returning, returning the big majority of the entire team, but losing one outstanding QB.

That was the first time I've seen Tressel do a really and truly bad job of coaching a team. They got knocked down and never did get up. Meyer had his team peak in the right game (admit it, they never looked that good during the rest of the season). I'll take one poorly-coached game every five years.

[jeffbrig]

Originally posted by Treg
Get it?

I understand what you're saying, I'm just giving you the other side of the argument. At the time our schedule is made, we feel like it's enough to hold up on its own. If a few teams we play are in a slump, that's not something we can predict far enough out to make any changes. Ignoring our desire for 6 home games, we could add USC and Texas or Oklahoma, but if everyone has a strong year, it's borderline suicidal. There has to be a balance between a schedule that's "strong enough", vs. one that's so brutal half of your team is dinged up and limping through practices. As is, we had a lot of trouble with nagging injuries this season. The bowl game was the most complete our team had been since two-a-days.

Bottom line, it wasn't WHO we played this year that was hurting us, it was HOW we played. An inconsistent offense and close wins didn't impress the guys at ESPN, or most voters.

[The Grim Reefer]

I think the BCS conferences should only be allowed to schedule a single non-BCS out of conference game per year. That levels the playing field and makes the win-loss records actually mean something early season.

USC had a killer OOC schedule this year but Arkansas was thought to be a gimme when that was scheduled. Turns out ND was their Gimme. I think they open up against Idaho next year. Not a big challenge but at least a team they will have to take seriously. Then they get Nebraska and ND again.

[bluerug]

Can i say, I TOLD YA SO.

[PUGroyale]

Originally posted by jeffbrig
Great link, Grim.

What's interesting to see there is still a significant gap between the BCS and non-BCS conferences. The BCS conferences won 53-75% of their OOC games, while the non-BCS schooles won 20-44%.

There's some meaningful stats...

Southern Miss
UCF
Vanderbilt
Western Carolina

The combined scores of the Florida SMisss/UCF/WCarolina games was 138-7 Talk about Patsy's... Although Vanderbilt was almost equal to the UF challenge

I wonder why those are so skewed Padded schedules = padded stats

[jeffbrig]

Originally posted by ECEKatko
Meyer had his team peak in the right game (admit it, they never looked that good during the rest of the season).

Agree 100%. We were plagued with inconsistency on offense all year. Spectacular at times, other times we had dumb penalties killing drives, questionable play calling, turnovers leading to points, missed FGs, etc. Keep in mind, our offensive coordinator, Dan Mullen, is only in his 2nd year, so he's still learning how to manage games. Last night, everyone was healthy, the game plan / play calling were perfect, Leak had time in the pocket, and we came out firing on all cylinders.

Another thing that hasn't been mentioned many places is the underdog factor. Yes, everyone's mentioned that we were underdogs in this game. What people are overlooking is that we've been challenged as underdogs multiple times this year (Tennessee, Bama, LSU) and our team really took it personally. The defense, in particular, has a BIG chip on their shoulder about not getting much recognition. They are much better than the media realized going into this game.

Did you watch what Jamarcus Russell and LSU did to Notre Dame? When we played LSU our defense forced 3 interceptions, completely rattled their receivers, a couple of fumbles, and we held them to 10 points.

That was the first time I've seen Tressel do a really and truly bad job of coaching a team.

That really surprised me, too. From the time they were coming out of the tunnel, there seemed to be a total lack of excitement from the OSU players. The OL seemed helpless against our defensive ends, and Smith seemed to hold the ball way too long. Is our DL really that much faster than what the other Big 10 teams had this year? LSU had success with short passes against us (we game planned to take away the big play), but Smith never found anyone open to throw to. Tressel's decision to go for the 4th and short was the play of the game. Big mental error there by the coach, but I suppose he was trying to spark his team by challenging them. That backfired in a big way.

On the defensive side, I don't understand why OSU played zone the entire game. If you let Leak sit in the pocket all day he will rip the defense to shreds. I kept waiting on them to man up and start blitzing, but it never happened. Leak has a history of making bad decisions when under pressure, any decent film work by OSU would show that. Did they watch any film from the Auburn game? Terrible job of game planning by OSU. I figured they would change it up at some point in the 2nd half, but they stuck with it. Even at 34-14, I didn't think OSU was completely out of it, but it seemed like the players just gave up.

[PUGroyale]

Undefeated Boise State --> beat OSU who --> beat USC who --> beat Arkansas who --> beat Auburn who --> beat Florida

I rest my case

[The Grim Reefer]

6 degrees of BCS

[Mr Sh0tgun]

Grim how mad would you be if Carrol left USC for the pros? I'm not saying he will, but what if he did?

[ECEKatko]

I think the biggest problem with the Oline was the left side. Watch all the times pressure came in on Smith throughout the game. Almost every time someone came through untouched, they came through being chased by #75 (Alex Boone). He didn't block anyone several times, or tried to double-team a DT for some reason to leave a DE free. I don't think the big thing with the Oline was speed, it was just horrible blocking most of the game. The O and D coordinators just checked out. The drives where OSU held FLA came when a) FLA tried just running it and b) OSU actually got to Leak with pressure. Some of the best tacklers on D were safeties and CBs, so why stay away from the safety blitz? After Leak completes 9 straight passes to start the game, why do the LBs keep covering the receivers the entire game? Defend the big plays, of which there were none, and give up yards all the way down the field?

On the O side it hurt when Ginn went down, but not that much. Some of the plays were just idiotic. I don't understand why Tressel didn't try a play besides 3-4 wideouts with Smith in the shotgun, draw with Pittman or Wells running it up the gut (and not enough of that), and occasional options. No reverses, not close to enough screens, nothing imaginitive. Smith didn't throw for much, but he didn't get many chances, either. Horrible Oline play + horrible playcalling + losing the #1 speed receiver = diddlysquat on offense. Being on the field for the entire game + dropping into zone for the entire game + giving up small plays to prevent big ones = diddlysquat on defense. The special teams weren't bad, except for the idiotic penalty.

I think Carroll will stay. What else could the NFL offer him? Some more money? He gets a ton of the best players from all over the country, has all the tradition he could want, and has success coaching in the past few years that nobody but Belichik has matched. Even the media love him and his program.

[The Grim Reefer]

Originally posted by Mr Sh0tgun
Grim how mad would you be if Carrol left USC for the pros? I'm not saying he will, but what if he did?

Got no right to get mad. Would be bummed.

[55semireef]

Originally posted by The Grim Reefer
Fun weird season.

One thing I liked was despite Florida winning the NC the SEC was exposed as just another conference this year. Perhaps the toughest conference this year but certainly not dominant.

SEC superiority.....

See you in August guys

Wait...what did the SEC go in bowl games???

SEC: 6-3
Little 10: 2-5
PAC 10: 3-3

I rest my case.

[The Grim Reefer]

Originally posted by 55semireef
Wait...what did the SEC go in bowl games???

SEC: 6-3
Little 10: 2-5
PAC 10: 3-3

I rest my case.

Rest this fan boy.

The little 10 schooled the SEC in their bowl games, thats were they got their 2 wins, 2-1 against the SUC

[ECEKatko]

For all the talk about how the B10 was really good at the top and bad throughout vs. the SEC was great throughout, why did the B10 look like it had more parity?

Don't bring up the bowl records, or you have to mention the Big East's. Note how I didn't say the BE won the bowl battle, just that you have to mention it. SEC may have ended up as the toughest league, but it's not clearly superior to all the rest of the conferences. The fact that 2 of those 3 losses came to the B10, and that those 2 games were the only B10 bowl wins, says a lot. You could always bring up the bowl records against teams from, say, the B10, SEC, and PAC.

[55semireef]

But who DEMOLISHED the number one Big 10 team 41-14?
It was the number one SEC team vs. the number one Big 10 team. I rest my case once again. And now we know who the real number one team is and its not BSU.

Still, little 10 only went 2-5 in bowl games. I am not gonna lie. Penn. St. and Wisconsin are decent teams and beat two SEC teams that are also decent. But I think FLA killing OSU after all this smack talk by the commenators, OSU fans, and non-gator fans in general really proved how ignorant some of you can be. I don't think it matters that the little 10 went 2-1 against the SEC. What matters is the overall record of bowl games and what happened with OSU/FLA.

I loved how OSU fans thought OSU was going to kill FLA. I really felt bad for you guys honestly. I thought Troy Smith was about to cry at one point.

[PUGroyale]

Originally posted by The Grim Reefer
6 degrees of BCS

more like 6 degrees of BCS

[Old Yeller Tang]

Originally posted by Old Yeller Tang
My top 3 for next season.

1. SC
2. FLA
3. MICHIGAN

I have FLA ahead of Michigan only if Tebow performs well but with Henne and Hart coming back, Michigan should be tough!

Looks like someone else agrees with my top 3!

"Booty could return Trojans to No. 1 ranking By Mark Schlabach
ESPN.com"
Archive

The 2006 college football season isn't even 48 hours behind us, but it's never too early to look ahead to this fall. This preview might be altered by the early exodus to the NFL, but we're fairly certain about a couple of things: The Trojans are No. 1 and Notre Dame isn't ranked.


1. USC Trojans
Why: Quarterback John David Booty's stellar performance (391 passing yards, four touchdowns) in the Trojans' 32-18 win over Michigan in the Rose Bowl presented by Citi showed he's among the best passers in the country. The Trojans played a boatload of underclassmen this season; if junior defensive end Lawrence Jackson and defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis return, they could have 10 starters back on defense.


Why not: Booty's two primary targets -- Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith -- will be gone next season. Are young receivers Vidal Hazelton and Patrick Turner ready to step up? Junior left tackle Sam Baker could join senior center Ryan Kalil in the NFL draft. The 2006 schedule flips in 2007 with road games at Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, California and Arizona State.



2. Florida Gators
Why: Have you seen the talent Gators coach Urban Meyer has stockpiled in Gainesville? Florida's 41-14 annihilation of Ohio State in the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game was no fluke. The Gators are in the top five to stay. Meyer and offensive coordinator Dan Mullen believe heralded quarterback Tim Tebow will run their offense better in his sophomore year than graduating quarterback Chris Leak. A national championship repeat isn't out of the question -- the 2007 schedule is more favorable with home games against Tennessee, Auburn and Florida State and additional nonconference games against I-AA Western Kentucky, Troy and Florida Atlantic.



Why not: The defense -- the Gators' strength during their run to the BCS national title -- will be hit hard with personnel losses. At least five starters will leave and star safety Reggie Nelson and linebacker Brandon Siler also could bolt for the NFL draft. The Gators still don't run the ball very well and leading rusher DeShawn Wynn is leaving.



3. Michigan Wolverines
Why: Quarterback Chad Henne, tailback Mike Hart and All-America left tackle Jake Long already have declared they'll be back, along with receiver Mario Manningham. The Wolverines play most of their tough games at home -- against Oregon, Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State -- and don't play at Wisconsin until Nov. 10.



Why not: As many as eight defensive starters might be leaving, including junior tackle Alan Branch, who decided to enter the NFL draft. Defensive ends LaMarr Woodley and Rondell Biggs and All-America cornerback Leon Hall also are gone. Three starters are leaving on the offensive line.



4. West Virginia Mountaineers
Why: Mountaineers coach Rich Rodriguez turned down a lucrative offer from Alabama to stay at his alma mater. Quarterback Pat White and tailback Steve Slaton, two of the most electrifying players in the country, return for their junior seasons. The road to the Big East title gets easier with Bobby Petrino leaving Louisville.



Why not: The Mountaineers lose center Dan Mozes, the heart and soul of their offensive line, and starting receivers Rayshawn Bolden and Brandon Myles, who were valued as much for their blocking as pass catching. Seven starters should be back on defense, but linebackers Kevin "Boo" McLee and Jay Henry are leaving. Three of West Virginia's toughest games in 2007 are on the road -- at Rutgers, South Florida and Maryland.



5. Wisconsin Badgers
Why: The Badgers should return 19 starters from a team that finished 12-1 in coach Bret Bielema's first season. Rising sophomore P.J. Hill ran for more than 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns, and speedy wide receiver Marcus Randle El returns from a knee injury. All-Big 10 cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu and outside linebacker Jonathan Casillas return to lead an improving defense.



Why not: The Badgers should lose only two starters on offense, but they're important ones -- quarterback John Stocco and All-America left tackle Joe Thomas. Tyler Donovan played well in two emergency starts for Stocco, but he'll have to hold off Kansas State transfer Allan Evridge for the starting job. The schedule gets tougher, as the Badgers trade out Northwestern and Purdue for Michigan State and Ohio State in the Big 10 rotation.



6. Oklahoma Sooners
Why: The Sooners were among the youngest of the elite teams and still won the Big 12 Conference and played in a BCS bowl game. As many as nine starters could be back on offense and seven on defense. Rising senior Allen Patrick ran for 761 yards and four touchdowns in Adrian Peterson's absence, and proved he can carry the load in 2007 if Peterson leaves.



Why not: Oklahoma will have an inexperienced quarterback with Paul Thompson leaving. Either junior college transfer Joey Halzle, redshirt freshman Sam Bradford or incoming freshman Keith Nichol will get the nod. Leading tacklers Rufus Alexander and Zach Latimer and pass-rushing linemen Larry Birdine and C.J. Ah You are leaving.



7. Virginia Tech Hokies
Why: The Hokies played better than any ACC team down the stretch and might return eight starters on offense and eight on defense. Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall are as physically gifted as any linebackers in the country, and tailback Branden Ore emerged as the league's best runner.



Why not: Quarterback Sean Glennon struggled throwing the football in his first season as a starter, but the Hokies don't have a viable option behind him. Kicker Brandon Pace and punter Nic Schmitt, two of the country's best specialists, are leaving. Virginia Tech plays at LSU on Sept. 8 and picks up Florida State in the ACC rotation.



8. Texas Longhorns
Why: The Longhorns should score plenty of points with quarterback Colt McCoy and receivers Quan Cosby, Billy Pittman and possibly Limas Sweed coming back. Tailback Jamaal Charles might run for 1,000 yards when he's not sharing carries with Selvin Young anymore.



Why not: Three starters are leaving on the offensive line, including All-America guard Justin Blalock. There will be even more losses on a defense that got torched by Texas Tech and Kansas State: defensive ends Tim Crowder and Brian Robinson, safety Michael Griffin and cornerbacks Tarell Brown and Aaron Ross, the Thorpe Award winner. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik was named coach at Iowa State.


9. Ohio State Buckeyes
Why: The Buckeyes were exceptionally young this past season, starting 10 sophomores and freshmen. If Antonio Pittman returns for his senior season, he'll form one of the country's top tailback tandems with rising sophomore Chris Wells.


Why not: For starters, Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith is leaving. Receivers Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez also could bolt for the NFL draft, leaving fewer proven targets for the new quarterback, either Todd Boeckman or Rob Schoenhoft. Also, the schedule gets tougher with road games at Washington, Penn State and Michigan and a home game against Wisconsin. Was the BCS meltdown an aberration, or did Florida expose the Buckeyes' lack of speed?

10. Cal Bears
Why: Despite losing Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year Marshawn Lynch, the Bears return a plethora of skill players on offense. DeSean Jackson is a big-play threat at receiver and punt returner. Quarterback Nate Longshore was much-improved in his first season as a starter, and Justin Forsett and freshman James Montgomery are in line to replace Lynch.



Why not: For starters, the Bears open the 2007 season against Tennessee and must fare better than in the '06 opener. Cal must replace all its key parts on defense -- tackle Brandon Mebane, linebacker Desmond Bishop and cornerback Daymeion Hughes. The transition will be easier if the NCAA grants another year of eligibility to cornerback Tim Mixon, who missed all of 2006 with a knee injury.



11. Arkansas Razorbacks
Why: Tailback Darren McFadden might be the Heisman Trophy favorite in 2007 after running for nearly 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns as a sophomore. Tailback Felix Jones was nearly as productive. The Razorbacks relied largely on freshmen and sophomores in winning the SEC West in 2006.



Why not: The Hogs won despite failing to throw the football consistently all season. Neither Casey Dick nor Mitch Mustain was very good, allowing opponents to focus on stopping McFadden and Jones. Coach Houston Nutt seemed reluctant to turn his offense over completely to new coordinator Gus Malzahn, which might cause more tension down the road. The Razorbacks struggled defending the pass, and cornerback Chris Houston and defensive end Jamaal Anderson both entered the NFL draft as juniors. Road games at Alabama, Tennessee and LSU are hazardous.



12. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Why: All of the pieces are in place for coach Bill Callahan to return the Cornhuskers to their place among the country's elite teams. Arizona State transfer Sam Keller might be the perfect trigger man for Callahan's passing offense. Tailbacks Brandon Jackson and Marlon Lucky are both capable runners, and junior college transfer Maurice Purify was a big-play threat. Four offensive linemen return.



Why not: The Cornhuskers struggled to stop opponents, and all four defensive linemen and leading tackler Stewart Bradley must be replaced. The Cornhuskers can't go through another season without a capable kicker. The nonconference schedule will be more than demanding with home games against Nevada and USC and a road game at Wake Forest.



13. LSU Tigers
Why: The Tigers played like one of the best teams in the country down the stretch, winning their last seven games and beating Notre Dame 41-14 in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. LSU annually has stockpiled talent, starting with former coach Nick Saban and continuing with Les Miles.



Why not: The Tigers will be hit hard by defections: junior quarterback JaMarcus Russell has declared his intention of entering the NFL draft, and defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey is expected to do the same. Senior wideouts Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe, defensive end Chase Pittman and safeties Jessie Daniels and LaRon Landry also are leaving. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher left for the same position at Florida State.


14. Penn State Nittany Lions
Why: The Nittany Lions' 20-10 win over Tennessee in the Outback Bowl showed they're not too far from returning to where they were two years ago. Quarterback Anthony Morelli showed signs of being able to lead the offense, and Derrick Williams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood are all playmakers. If junior linebacker Dan Connor returns, the defense should be just as good after allowing 14.4 points per game in 2006.



Why not: Penn State must replace tailback Tony Hunt, who ran for more than 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons. Left tackle Levi Brown also leaves. Three starting defensive linemen must be replaced, along with All-America linebacker Paul Posluszny, the school's all-time leading tackler.



15. Texas A&M Aggies
Why: The Aggies return a lot of firepower in quarterback Stephen McGee, tailbacks Mike Goodson and Jorvorskie Lane, and blossoming tight end Martellus Bennett. Texas A&M lost three games by a combined six points before beating Texas 12-7 in the regular-season finale, so perhaps the Aggies finally have learned how to win close games.



Why not: Coach Dennis Franchione, who finally seemed to be off the hot seat by finishing 5-3 in the Big 12 and beating Texas, lost a lot of momentum when the Aggies were thumped 45-10 by California in the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl. The Bears found plenty of cracks in defensive coordinator Gary Darnell's 4-2-5 scheme, and leading tackler Justin Warren and safety Melvin Bullitt are leaving.


16. Auburn Tigers
Why: Nick Saban's arrival at Alabama will light a fuse under Tigers coach Tommy Tuberville, whose team went 11-2 in 2006, but never found its rhythm on offense. Auburn is still very talented on defense, and end Quentin Groves and tackle Sen'Derrick Marks can become dominating players.



Why not: The Tigers lose four offensive linemen, including second-team All-America guard Ben Grubbs, as well as leading receiver Courtney Taylor and leading rusher Kenny Irons. Quarterback Brandon Cox was inconsistent throughout the season and didn't receive much help from his receivers.



17. Georgia Bulldogs
Why: The Bulldogs salvaged an otherwise mediocre 2006 campaign by finishing with victories over nationally ranked Auburn, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. Freshman quarterback Matthew Stafford improved throughout the season and showed great arm strength. The receiver corps improved and should be better with the return of senior Sean Bailey, who missed all of 2006 with a knee injury. Running backs Kregg Lumpkin and Thomas Brown return, along with highly regarded freshman Knowshon Moreno.



Why not: Georgia will rely heavily on junior college transfers in rebuilding its offensive and defensive lines. The biggest losses will be defensive ends Charles Johnson and Quentin Moses and linebacker Tony Taylor. Road games at Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia Tech, along with playing Florida in Jacksonville, are daunting.



18. TCU Horned Frogs
Why: The Horned Frogs finished the 2006 season with a flourish, winning their last seven games and thumping Northern Illinois 37-7 in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. TCU outscored its last four opponents 172-35. All but two starters, including end Tommy Blake, an All-America candidate, return to a defense that should be among the best in the country. The defense will be tested early -- the Horned Frogs play at Texas on Sept. 8.



Why not: TCU loses quarterback Jeff Ballard, who threw 13 touchdowns and only five interceptions in 2006. He should be replaced by redshirt freshman Marcus Jackson, who has thrown 44 passes in his college career.



19. Tennessee Volunteers
Why: The Volunteers improved from 5-6 in 2005 to 9-4 this season, but coach Phillip Fulmer isn't satisfied, especially after a 20-10 loss to Penn State in the Outback Bowl. Erik Ainge should return for his senior season after offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe transformed him into an SEC quarterback again. Tailback LaMarcus Coker showed signs of being the runner the Vols have needed the last few seasons.



Why not: All three of Ainge's main weapons -- Robert Meachem, Bret Smith and Jayson Swain -- are leaving. Center David Ligon and Arron Sears also are departing. The Volunteers open the season at California and play at Florida and Alabama. Tennessee plays Georgia, South Carolina and Arkansas at home.




20. UCLA Bruins
Why: The Bruins won their last three regular-season games, including a 13-9 upset of USC, before losing to Florida State 44-27 in the Emerald Bowl. UCLA could start 10 seniors on defense next season, and coordinator DeWayne Walker proved to be a great tactician in the upset of the Trojans. Likewise, the Bruins should lose only one starter on offense -- center Robert Chai -- and two experienced quarterbacks, Patrick Cowan and Ben Olson, will battle for the starting job.


Why not: This will be a very important season for coach Karl Dorrell, who seemed to be on his way out until UCLA upset rival USC. The Bruins lose only three regulars, but two of them were All-Americans: first-team kicker Justin Medlock (28-for-32 field goals) and second-team defensive end Justin Hickman (12½ sacks).




21. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Why: The Scarlet Knights will keep chopping away in Piscataway, N.J., after coach Greg Schiano turned down Miami to stay at Rutgers. Tailback Ray Rice should be among the leading contenders for the 2007 Heisman Trophy, and quarterback Mike Teel continued to progress throughout the 2006 season. Wide receivers Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood are emerging big-play threats.



Why not: The loss of senior running back Brian Leonard can't be understated. He was a bruising blocker, a fabulous receiver out of the backfield and formed a great running tandem with Rice. The Scarlet Knights also must replace five starters on defense.


22. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Why: The Demon Deacons figure to stay near the top of the ACC as long as Clemson, Florida State and Miami continue to underachieve. Remarkably, Wake Forest was able to keep coach Jim Grobe after he led the Demon Deacons to an 11-3 record, ACC title and BCS bowl game.



Why not: Wake Forest won't sneak up on opponents this season. The Demon Deacons will have eight starters back on offense and seven on defense. But cornerback Riley Swanson and safeties Patrick Ghee and Josh Gattis will be missed from a secondary that helped the Demon Deacons intercept 22 passes in 2006. The passing game must get better, and Ben Mauk will challenge Riley Skinner for the starting job.



23. Boise State Broncos
Why: Who can doubt the Broncos after they finished 13-0 and beat Oklahoma 43-42 in overtime in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl with a heavy dose of razzle dazzle at the end? Tailback Ian Johnson returns after leading the country with 25 rushing touchdowns and 1,714 rushing yards in 2006. He'll have four offensive linemen back in front of him. Quarterback Jared Zabransky leaves, but coach Chris Petersen will have four quarterbacks competing to replace him, including Nick Lomax, son of former NFL quarterback Neil Lomax.



Why not: A big reason Boise State finished unbeaten was its defense, which improved to 14th in Division I-A in total defense and 21st in scoring defense (compared to 51st in each category in 2005). Star linebacker Korey Hall, the heart and soul of that defense, is leaving, along with three starting defensive linemen.


24. Alabama Crimson Tide
Why: It won't take Nick Saban long to turn the Crimson Tide into a winner, but it won't happen overnight. Alabama should return nine starters on offense, including promising tackle Andre Smith and guard B.J. Stabler. Receiver DJ Hall is coming back, along with quarterback John Parker Wilson, who must improve for the Tide to be effective on offense.



Why not: The Crimson Tide loses six starters on defense, including linebacker Juwan Simpson and tackle Jeremy Clark. The schedule is difficult with home games against Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU and road games against Florida State (in Jacksonville) and Auburn.



25. Louisville Cardinals
Why: Before coach Bobby Petrino bolted for the NFL's Atlanta Falcons, the Cardinals were hoping junior quarterback Brian Brohm would return. If Brohm leaves for the NFL draft, Hunter Cantwell is ready to take over. Petrino said he believed Cantwell could develop into an NFL prospect. Anthony Allen showed he's ready to replace Michael Bush, who announced Tuesday that he will leave for the NFL draft.


Why not: Maybe this is why Petrino left. Besides Bush, Brohm and Louisville junior wideouts Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia are expected to enter the draft. Linebacker Malik Jackson could do the same. Defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, cornerbacks William Gay and Gavin Smart and linebacker Nate Harris are definitely leaving the defense.





Mark Schlabach covers college football and men's college basketball for ESPN.com. You can contact him at schlabachma@yahoo.com.