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I thought it almost closed... but China began utilizing more oil without regulation b/c of their industrial growth and thus it got ripped open again... even worse than b4. i'll need to double check that.
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Nope. There's a lag between CFC release and the damage to the ozone layer so the size of the hole hasn't even peaked from CFCs released before they were phased out here. IIRC it's not expected to peak until around 2010 or so and then barring more damage won't be back to normal until 2050.
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And how do your determine what effect man has?
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Estimated budgets. Like Chris said, we know how much coal and oil we've extracted and how much CO2 and sulfate we get from each unit. We also know from physics how much impact to expect from each unit of CO2 or sulfate. You use the same methods for land use changes, landfills, farming, and other contributors.
How do you estimate the impacts of natural contributors like volcanoes, swamps, phytoplankton, etc.? The same way.
The fact that the estimates give results so similar to the real world numbers suggests they're pretty robust.