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I wish I could give you a definitive answer. It really seems to depend on the size and health of the animal, the quality of the water, whether you are running UV sterilization, etc., etc. From my experience, all things being average, time from a single lesion to a severe infection is at least a couple of months. If the animal successfully molts and conditions are good, the lesion can heal and not spread. If the lesion has penetrated the cuticle, shell disease is a lot harder to cure and is usually fatal.
Roy
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